The Buffalo Bills can put a stranglehold on the AFC East when they visit the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.
Buffalo is 3-2 straight up entering this primetime pairing while the Jets and the rest of the division are below .500 entering Week 6. New York is also shuffling the sideline, firing head coach Robert Saleh on Tuesday morning. Oddsmakers believe in Bills Mafia, setting Buffalo as a 3-point road favorite.
I run down the spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my early leans, Bills vs. Jets predictions, and NFL picks for Monday, October 14.
Bills vs Jets predictions
Early spread leanNew York Jets +3 (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It was a long flight home for the New York Jets after losing to Minnesota in London last Sunday. Most teams get a customary bye after the international appearances, but not New York. Gang Green does get an extra day to rest and regroup after Saleh’s firing, and veteran QB Aaron Rodgers is going to need it.
Rodgers was already feeling the aches and pains before Week 5 but left London with a loss and a high ankle sprain. While he’s listed as questionable for Week 6, Rodgers’ ankle injury isn’t too serious and he’s expected to play Monday.
The Buffalo Bills are also coming off a Week 5 defeat and QB Josh Allen is also worse for wear with an ankle sprain of his own and a rough outing against Houston. This trip to the Meadowlands will be the Bills’ third straight road game after losses to the Ravens and Texans.
Buffalo bullied some bad defensive teams to start the season, but the offense has had more trouble against quality stop units in Baltimore and Houston — scoring just 30 points and sitting 25th in EPA per play the past two weeks.
New York remains one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. Since allowing 32 points to San Francisco in Week 1, the Jets have given up a total of just 53 points and sit No. 2 in EPA allowed per play over the past four weeks.
With this spread climbing to Bills -3 at some books, I’m hesitant to lay the field goal with a team that looks a little better than it is due to weaker foes to start the season.
Early Over/Under leanUnder 41.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Bills’ biggest weakness is stopping the run. We saw that on full display in the Week 4 loss to the run-heavy Ravens. New York has a nice two-headed monster in Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen but is handing off the ball at the third-lowest rate while leaving the rushing attack to sit 28th in EPA per handoff.
Buffalo is defending the pass well but isn’t getting after opposing quarterbacks, with the lowest blitz rate in the league and a pressure rate of just 16.3%. The Bills are playing a lot of zone coverage, protecting against the deep ball (giving up only eight passes of 20 or more yards), which will have Rodgers surgically looking short underneath.
As for Buffalo’s offense, it has struggled against quality defensive opponents in the past two games. The Bills are no longer a deep-strike playbook and instead rely on bigger WRs to catch and run on shorter completions.
Buffalo sits second in average yards after the catch (7.1) while the Jets allow the fewest YAC in the league with tight man coverage and sound tackling. New York is also doing a good job pressuring passers, with 18 sacks and a pressure rate just shy of 30% (fifth highest).
The Bills play a methodical pace on offense, getting off the second-fewest plays per game and running a small 5.4% rate of no-huddle on the season. The Jets have seen their play rate tick up due to trailing in second halves but also don’t dabble in no-huddle that often.
This total is 41.5 O/U and with two solid defenses and two pedestrian offenses, I’m leaning to the Under on Monday night.
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In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
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He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
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